Thanks to the excellent Election Maps site for the list of LD targets. It has produced charts like the above for all the parties based on what happened at GE2019.
One of the big lessons that the LDs learned from GE2019 was that it is very hard to achieve victory in a seat when they were not runners up there at the previous general election. It is that previous outcome that is so important in setting expectations.
Thus right from the start in the Remain-voting constituency of Chesham and Amersham five weeks ago they were able to present themselves as the challenger which made it that much easier to squeeze the non-Tory vote. The LAB vote dropped from 12.8% at the general election to just 1.6% in the by-election suggesting that the old negative about the LDs in the 2010-2015 coalition is less of a factor than it was.
As PB regular swill know I was suggesting that the LDs were the value bet in the by-election there right from the start and many were able to gt on at 20. This was based on the GE2019 outcome and the demographics – a high proportion of ABC1s and 40+% of voters there being graduates.
Of course by-elections are not general elections and party resources are spread much more thinly. But we do know that amongst many LD target voters that BoJo is electorally toxic. The latest Opinium poll had Johnson’s approval ratings amongst ABC1 Remainers at a net MINUS 44%. If he is still PM that will help Davey’s party.
If you probe the details of many of the target seats above there is a similar profile.